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Ostium Labs’ Market Outlook #55 argues that Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bull construction survived final week’s volatility and now factors “again to the highs,” supplied spot holds above $107,000. “While we commerce above $107k, I feel the following transfer is again to the highs, with $112k prone to act as native help,” the be aware states, including that the agency nonetheless expects value to commerce into “that confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.”
The staff frames final week’s deleveraging because the “nice reset,” contending that the biggest liquidation occasion in crypto historical past eliminated extra leverage with out breaking weekly construction. On the weekly chart, no main help was misplaced and the wick all the way down to roughly $107,000 was reclaimed right into a $115,000 shut, which Ostium reads as affirmation that momentum stays bullish on greater timeframes. Invalidation is exact: “A weekly shut beneath final week’s low is now the apparent invalidation… shut by $107k… and we have now a extra urgent concern, the place we undoubtedly then commerce into $99k.”
On the each day, Ostium notes a traditional sweep-and-reversal sequence. Value twice tagged the prior vary excessive close to $126.3k, failed to carry above $123.8k, after which “collapsed,” finally wicking into the 200-day shifting common—an space the desk had flagged as a possible terminal degree for any early-October capitulation.
The view from right here is unambiguous: “Anybody anticipating sub-$100k will stay sidelined for a very long time—in the event you didn’t get it on the biggest liquidation occasion in crypto historical past, I don’t suppose you’re getting it till we enter a bear market.” Tactical invalidation on this timeframe is a each day shut beneath the 200-DMA, which might put the 360-DMA close to $100,000 in play and represent Ostium’s “line within the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.”
Associated Studying
Path dependency issues for the upside name. Ostium expects prior highs round $112,000 to behave as help and type the next low, with “acceptance again above ~$116k” setting a rotation to the top quality at $123.8k after which “value discovery past that.” The desk’s near-term timing is surprisingly punchy: “Gun to my head I feel we commerce $125k by early subsequent week and $133k by month-end.”
For merchants, the popular lengthy setup is early-week weak spot into $110k–$112k to ascertain the next low, utilizing a each day shut beneath $107k (onerous cease $105k) as danger, and concentrating on a minimum of $121k with scope for a lot greater. A counter-trend quick, against this, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and each day shut again beneath $118k, after which a fade into the $110k–$112k zone—provided that the higher-low hasn’t already fashioned.
Positioning proof, in Ostium’s view, buttresses the reset-then-extend thesis. The agency highlights obliterated open curiosity, Binance Web Longs again to “Liberation Day” lows, compressed three-month annualized foundation, and contemporary liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons—all in line with a cleaner tape for pattern continuation.
The calendar this week is dense however navigable: a speech-heavy week (Powell, Bailey, Lagarde), the NY Empire State Manufacturing print, the Philadelphia Fed survey, and US Industrial Manufacturing. Ostium’s framework treats these occasions as potential catalysts relatively than pattern definers; as long as $107,000 holds and $112,000 features as a springboard, the structural bias stays greater towards $133,000.
On the core of the thesis is a binary investor psychology after the purge. “These kinds of occasions mark turning factors: both you at the moment are cemented in your perception that… the bear market has begun… or you’re cemented in your perception that the leverage washout offers us the runway for greater for longer costs into Q1 subsequent yr,” Ostium writes. The desk is firmly within the latter camp, reiterating that Bitcoin “seems extra bullish as we speak than it did in the beginning of final week.”
Briefly past Bitcoin, Ostium’s cross-asset learn tilts supportive for the crypto beta advanced if near-term circumstances align. For Ethereum, weekly construction “seems nothing like a prime,” with a decisive shut above trendline resistance and $4,400 anticipated to set off an all-time-high breakout; the staff believes “ETH trades by $4,950 inside 10 days… towards $5,750 in November,” and sees the This autumn low as doubtless in.
Associated Studying
On ETH/BTC, the desk calls final week’s flush into 0.0319 a higher-low and anticipates ETH outperformance into year-end, contingent on reclaiming 0.0375 and finally breaking the trendline—a dynamic that, if realized, may cap BTC dominance with out undermining Bitcoin’s personal pattern. The DXY rally is considered as late-stage: resistance close to 100 and a looming rollover would cut back macro headwinds for danger property.
For US equities, Ostium nonetheless expects “greater for longer,” eyeing contemporary SPX highs by month-end and a robust November as buyback blackouts finish and earnings season progresses; bettering fairness breadth tends to coincide with constructive crypto flows.
Lastly, in “OTHERS,” the altcoin index printed a historic wick to the 360-week MA earlier than reclaiming help; with derivatives positioning “totally decimated,” Ostium now expects the next native low, a November reclaim of the yearly open close to $335bn, and, if confirmed, a push towards cycle and ATH resistance—circumstances that often observe with a more healthy, much less fragile Bitcoin uptrend.
Taken collectively, the desk’s message is constant throughout timeframes and property: the reset did its job, the invalidation is obvious at $107,000, $112,000 ought to be the pivot, and the upside waypoint is $133,000, with the macro calendar extra prone to modulate the trail than to derail the vacation spot. As Ostium summarizes, “While we commerce above $107k… the following transfer is again to the highs.”
At press time, BTC traded at $111,509.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
