The on-chain analytics agency Glassnode has revealed how a preferred fantasy surrounding the decline of the Bitcoin change provide isn’t actual.
Accessible Bitcoin Provide Hasn’t Truly Dropped A lot
In its newest weekly report, Glassnode has mentioned a couple of false impression that’s broadly held within the Bitcoin neighborhood across the decline within the Steadiness on Exchanges throughout this cycle.
The “Steadiness on Exchanges” right here refers to an on-chain indicator that, as its identify suggests, measures the entire quantity of the cryptocurrency that’s sitting within the wallets of all centralized exchanges.
Typically, one of many primary the reason why traders deposit to the exchanges is for selling-related functions, so the Steadiness on Exchanges is commonly checked out because the out there promote provide of the asset. Will increase within the metric, due to this fact, are thought of bearish for BTC’s worth, as they counsel extra holders are prepared to half with their tokens. Equally, declines could be assumed to be bullish.
Now, right here is the chart for the Bitcoin Steadiness on Exchanges shared by the analytics agency within the report:
The worth of the metric seems to have seen a plunge in current months | Supply: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 4, 2025
As displayed within the above graph, the Bitcoin Steadiness on Exchanges was sitting at 3.1 million BTC in July 2024, however as we speak, it has declined to simply 2.74 million BTC. It is a vital lower and has made many consider that this represents the creation of a ‘provide shock‘ for the asset.
Glassnode thinks in any other case, nonetheless, because the analytics agency has defined:
Whereas many interpret this as a type of provide shock brought on by a mass of cash being withdrawn by particular person traders—probably creating upward worth strain—we consider nearly all of this decline stems from cash reshuffling into ETF wallets managed by custodians like Coinbase.
The spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are funding autos that had been launched within the US firstly of final 12 months. They provide an alternate technique of gaining publicity to the asset, in a mode that’s acquainted to conventional traders. This mode of BTC investing has shortly gained recognition and as we speak, the spot ETFs management a notable quantity of the availability.
“After the SEC accepted Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024, eight of 11 spot ETFs chosen Coinbase as their custodian,” notes Glassnode. “As demand for ETF merchandise picked up, a major migration of cash from change wallets into Coinbase’s institutional custodian wallets occurred.”
Beneath is the chart shared by the analytics agency that exhibits the pattern within the holdings of those spot ETFs.
Seems to be just like the ETFs mixed maintain 1.69 million BTC for the time being | Supply: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 4, 2025
An fascinating image seems if the Bitcoin holdings of the spot ETFs are included with these of the exchanges.
How the mixed stability on exchanges and ETFs has modified over the previous few years | Supply: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 4, 2025
From the graph, it’s obvious that this mixed indicator is sitting at a price of three.04 million BTC proper now. That is about the identical degree as the place the market was firstly of 2024, proper earlier than the spot ETFs had been launched.
Based mostly on this, the analytics agency has concluded that the obvious decline within the Bitcoin Steadiness on Exchanges is extra prone to symbolize a shift in market construction, reasonably than a lower within the out there promote provide.
BTC Worth
Bitcoin has made restoration of about 3% prior to now day, which has taken its worth past $105,000.
The value of the coin appears to have retraced its current plunge | Supply: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured picture from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
